Johnson County, TX

Johnson County presents a carry-cost-versus-demand tension: supplied gross market-rent yield sits beside falling Zillow values and flood exposure. It merits investigation by operators able to test insurance, taxes and rent durability property by property; buyers relying on appreciation or HUD payment standards should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value fell 1.84% in 2026-06. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI edged higher. The dates and methods differ, so they do not form one growth rate; FHFA is an index, not a home value.

Measured median asking rent was $1,573 per month at Zillow’s reported vintage, and the supplied gross yield is 5.48% before costs. That is market asking-rent evidence, not a signed-lease or net-income measure. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot replace the measured rent in yield work. The effective property-tax rate is 1.24%; carrying-cost underwriting still needs the property’s assessed value, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing and operating expenses. Without them, NOI, debt coverage and a tax-adjusted return cannot be calculated.

Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market had 941 active listings, and 26.2% had price reductions. Those are visible supply and seller-concession signals, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW’s annual average of covered jobs at county workplaces grew 1.57%; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Tax-return migration was net positive by 2,239 households, with incoming movers’ average AGI $12,444 higher than outgoing movers’. Investor purchase mortgages were 182 of 3,749 total purchase mortgages, or 4.85%, limiting evidence of broad investor competition while not revealing bidding behavior or ownership concentration.

Modeled annual building-value loss is 0.12%, consistent with inland flood as the stated dominant hazard, but it is not a parcel-level loss estimate or insurance quote. Missing flood-zone, elevation, claims, coverage and premium evidence leaves hazard-adjusted cash flow and replacement exposure unpriced. Missing sale comparables, lease terms, vacancy, expenses and financing prevent rent, liquidity and debt-coverage confirmation. Next checks are parcel flood and insurance review, tax-bill verification, lease comps and closed-sale comparison.