Salem city’s decision tension is an acceptable headline yield versus weak household-flow evidence and flood exposure. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation reports a $295,104 median home value and $1,531 monthly median asking rent, supporting the supplied 6.23% gross yield before costs. This merits unit-level rent and flood diligence; buyers dependent on in-migration or rapid resale should be cautious. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.16%; it is an index rather than a home value and cannot be merged with Zillow into one appreciation rate.
Measured asking rent—not HUD’s two-bedroom FMR—is the yield input; asking rent is 22.1% above that payment standard. FMR is not an asking-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 0.90%, with a $2,316 median annual tax. Gross yield is before tax, insurance, debt service, repairs, vacancy and management, so it does not establish net cash flow or debt coverage.
Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence reports 60 active listings and 20.14% of listings reduced. These are visible asking supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Net migration was negative 15 tax-return households, and outmovers’ average AGI exceeded incomers’ by $665; that combination does not support assuming new higher-income tenant demand. The record identifies 30 investor purchase mortgages among 292 purchases, a non-occupant financing measure that can affect buyer competition but does not identify cash investors or rental occupancy.
Risk limits remain material. The modeled annual expected building-value loss ratio is 0.12%, consistent with inland flood as the named dominant hazard but not a parcel-specific loss estimate. QCEW measures annual covered jobs at county workplaces; Education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector. It is not resident employment, unemployment or a forecast. Missing flood-zone and elevation records, insurance quotations, unit condition, achieved rents, operating expenses, vacancy history and closed-sale comparables prevent a property-level net-yield, hazard-cost and exit-price conclusion.