Grants Pass, OR
Grants Pass merits investigation only for buyers who can negotiate entry terms and underwrite flat-to-soft income; investors dependent on near-term rent growth or strong employment momentum should avoid it.
Why this market scores where it does
Written from the figures on this page and then checked against them: every number below had to appear in the source record or recompute from two that did, or the text was rewritten.
Grants Pass merits investigation only for buyers who can negotiate entry terms and underwrite flat-to-soft income; investors dependent on near-term rent growth or strong employment momentum should avoid it. At a $395,735 median home value and $1,627 median asking rent, the reported gross yield is 0.0493 of price; expense and vacancy assumptions are decision-critical.
The opportunity is buyer leverage rather than demand strength. Months of supply is 5.6, median market time is 29 days, and the sizable price-drop share points to negotiability. The record also shows 152 total permits, a restrained pipeline signal; this is an opportunity signal, not proof of strong demand.
Asking rent fell 1.63% year over year and CES employment fell 0.77%, while inland flood is the dominant hazard. Net migration was positive at 209 households, but incoming movers' average income was $2,890 below outgoing movers' average, based on the reported income gap. The mix supports selective property-level diligence, not a broad market bet.
Frequently Asked Investor Questions
How negotiable does the resale market look?
Are household flows adding demand at higher incomes?
What climate hazard should a buyer check?
Investor Quick Takeaways
Computed from the current Zillow rent and home-value medians.
Zillow ZORI rent growth trend over trailing 12 months.
Originated investment purchase share (CFPB HMDA).
Annualized loss ratio evaluated for flood & hurricane risk.
Test the market, then test the deal
Keep Grants Pass as the starting point or move into a more specific property and rent check.
The current market in eight signals
Fast-moving Redfin conditions sit beside the slower fundamentals so a buyer can separate today's negotiating climate from the long-run investment case.
What each component measures
Weights are published, not hidden, and the arithmetic is shown. Five components, each measured as a national percentile across all tracked metros.
| Signal | Score | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Job growth | 18 | 30% | 5.40 |
| Rent trend | 3 | 25% | 0.75 |
| Affordability | 11 | 15% | 1.65 |
| Supply pressure | 36 | 15% | 5.40 |
| Climate risk | 5 | 15% | 0.75 |
| Published score | 14 | ||
CES employment fell 0.77% year over year -> job-based support for rental demand is weak.
Median asking rent fell 1.63% year over year -> current rent momentum is negative.
Rent is 0.3249 of median household income and the price-to-income ratio is 6.58 -> affordability is constrained for renters and buyers.
Months of supply is 5.6 and the price-drop share is 0.3169 -> buyers have evidence of negotiating room despite restrained permitting.
The dominant hazard is inland flood and the annual climate loss ratio is 0.003845 -> flood exposure and insurance terms require property-level review.
What this market costs and what it earns
Every derived ratio below recomputes from the same source record used by the article and score.
What is being built, and for whom
Permits are the 12-to-24 month early warning. The total matters less than the mix: apartments compete with a rental the day they open.
Demand, and the competition for it
Tax filings say how many households moved and what they earn; mortgage disclosures say how many local purchases went to someone who will not live there. Moves between counties inside this metro are netted out of both flow figures.
What would make this a bad buy
Generated from the same figures with the instruction to argue against the score, and published unedited. A page that only agrees with itself is an advertisement.
Three ways the case breaks
- CES employment fell 0.77% year over year, leaving a weak labor-demand backdrop.
- Median asking rent fell 1.63% year over year, a negative current income signal.
- Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with a reported annual climate loss ratio of 0.003845.
Move from the metro average to local evidence
County pages carry tax, migration, listing and hazard records. City pages appear only where direct city price, rent and Census evidence pass the publication gate.
No city in this metro has passed the current city evidence gate.
Metros that behave like Grants Pass
Nearest neighbours on price level, income, yield and job growth — not on geography. Every market page gets a different peer set, which is the point.
| Metro | Score | Price | Rent | Yield | Job Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grants Pass, OR (Target) | 14 | $396k | $1,627 | 4.9% | ▼ 0.8% |
| Eureka, CA | 28 | $428k | $1,545 | 4.3% | ▼ 0.7% |
| Newport, OR | 30 | $479k | $1,979 | 5.0% | ▼ 0.5% |
| Coos Bay, OR | 48 | $355k | $1,580 | 5.3% | ▼ 0.1% |
| Cleveland, TN | 25 | $317k | $1,432 | 5.4% | ▼ 0.7% |
Where every figure came from
“Checked nightly” means every source is re-pulled and re-verified each night. It does not mean every source moves nightly — the release column tells you how fresh each number can possibly be.
| Dataset Source | Method | Release Period | Pulled Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census ACS 5-year — household income | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — population | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS CES — payroll employment | direct | CES SM current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS LAUS — resident employment | direct | LAUS current | 2026-07-26 |
| BLS QCEW — county employment and wages | direct | annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 | 2026-07-31 |
| OMB/BLS delineation — metro geography | direct | OMB July 2023 delineation | 2026-07-30 |
| Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units | direct | BPS through 2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| Census ACS 5-year — city population, households and housing | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-29 |
| Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-30 |
| FEMA National Risk Index — hazard loss ratios | modelled | NRI counties (FEMA ArcGIS) | 2026-07-26 |
| FHFA House Price Index — annual county appreciation | direct | annual county HPI 2025 | 2026-07-28 |
| HMDA / CFPB — purchases by occupancy type | direct | HMDA 2024 purchase originations | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD Fair Market Rents — Section 8 standard | direct | FY2026 FMR | 2026-07-26 |
| HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback | direct | ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026 | 2026-07-26 |
| IRS SOI — county migration and mover income | direct | SOI migration 2022-2023 | 2026-07-26 |
| Freddie Mac PMMS — mortgage rates | direct | week of 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 |
| Census ACS 5-year — effective property tax | direct | ACS 2024 5-year | 2026-07-27 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory | direct | county inventory 2026-06 | 2026-07-28 |
| Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts | direct | metro tracker through 2026-05-01 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents | direct | county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — metro home values | direct | Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZHVI — city home values | direct | zillow_zhvi_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — metro market rents | direct | Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv | 2026-07-26 |
| Zillow ZORI — city market rents | direct | zillow_zori_city.csv | 2026-07-29 |
| Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents | direct | ZORI ZIP 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 |