Falls Church city poses a price-versus-income tension: a buyer seeking current income should be cautious, while a buyer able to underwrite a high basis and parcel-specific risk should investigate. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $1,185,856. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 11.77%; that supports a positive price direction but is neither a dollar home value nor a rate to blend with Zillow because the methods and observation periods differ.
Measured market rent is $2,512 per month and was down 2.87% year over year in the Zillow county observation. The supplied 2.54% gross yield uses market rent before costs. HUD’s $2,246 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot replace the measured rent in yield work. A 0.95% effective property-tax rate and $10,001 median annual tax make carrying costs material against the low gross yield; insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing and net operating income are not published, so cash-flow coverage cannot be concluded.
Household-flow evidence is modest rather than a demand verdict: 1,044 tax-return households moved in and 1,032 moved out, a calculated net of 12. Moving-in households had average AGI $6,849 above movers leaving, but this does not identify renters or lease demand. Investors accounted for 7 of 108 purchase mortgages, or 6.48%, indicating some mortgage-financed non-owner competition but not cash purchases. QCEW measures annual covered jobs at county workplaces, not residents or unemployment; Education and health services is its largest disclosed private supersector.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.08%. This county-level model is not a parcel flood determination, insurance quote or mitigation estimate. Realtor.com MLS listing-market figures are not published here, preventing a read on asking-price competition, visible supply, marketing time, or seller concessions; they would not be closed-sale evidence in any event. Next checks are parcel flood and insurance records, comparable current leases and operating statements, and transaction-level competition, because these missing inputs prevent a property-level net-income and exit-liquidity conclusion.