Fauquier County presents a valuation-versus-income tension: buyers able to validate durable tenant demand and parcel flood exposure should investigate, while yield-sensitive buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation puts median home value at $656,941, up 3.01% year over year. FHFA’s separate 2025 repeat-transaction index rose 6.57% annually and 48.91% cumulatively over five years. Both point upward, but their different vintages and methods preclude blending them into a single appreciation rate.
The measured median asking rent is $2,380 per month and stated gross yield is 4.35% before costs. The effective property-tax rate is 0.75%, so tax review belongs in carrying-cost underwriting rather than in a revised gross-yield claim. HUD FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate; it must not replace market rent in the yield. Operating expenses, insurance, vacancy, debt terms and unit-specific taxes are not published, preventing net-yield or cash-flow conclusions.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS evidence shows active listings increased 16.83% from a year earlier, while 18.25% of listings had a price reduction. These are visible supply and seller-concession indicators, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Net migration was positive and inbound movers had higher average AGI than outbound movers, but that combination does not establish tenant demand. Investor participation was 4.38% of 937 purchase mortgages, an input to buyer-competition review rather than evidence on cash buyers or all investor ownership.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual climate loss ratio is 0.11% of building value, requiring parcel-level flood-zone, insurance, drainage and mitigation review rather than conversion to dollars. QCEW annual covered-workplace data are not resident employment or unemployment; Trade, transportation, and utilities is only the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy. Missing closed-sale comps, property condition, lease terms and rental-submarket evidence prevent conclusions on executable acquisition price, renewal demand and net returns.