Curated market comparison

DallasHouston

Two large Texas alternatives with similar renter demand but different entry price, yield, supply and climate profiles.

Dallas, TX cityscape
Houston, TX cityscape
Quick answer

Choose by objective, not by one blended winner

These are the published fit calls from the verified decision memo. Use the full evidence below to decide whether the trade-off matches your property plan.

DallasEmployment · Climate risk
HoustonCash flow · Supply discipline
Deal-dependentAffordability
Take the five-question market-fit quiz
Decision memo

The trade-off, before the charts

Figure-checked analysis generated from only these two published records. No appreciation forecast and no property-level expense assumptions.

Houston better fits a cash-flow screen: its 6.4% gross yield exceeds Dallas’s 5.48%, while asking rent is only $25 lower. That advantage comes mainly with a lower entry price, not materially higher rent. Dallas better fits buyers emphasizing household affordability: rent absorbs 22.24% of median income versus 24.07% in Houston, although Dallas’s price-to-income measure is higher. Property-level underwriting should therefore start in Houston when basis and gross income efficiency dominate, and in Dallas when renter payment capacity carries more weight.

Dallas has the stronger employment and migration record in these figures. CES job growth is 0.82% year over year, compared with 0.57% in Houston, and net migration is 21,070 tax-return households versus 11,570. Those readings give Dallas a better demand backdrop, but they do not establish neighborhood-level rent growth or tenant quality. Supply is the sharper trade-off: Dallas issued 8.52 permits per 1,000 residents, compared with Houston’s 7.88, so Houston better fits a buyer seeking less visible construction pressure.

Climate tolerance reverses that preference. Both markets list inland flood as the dominant hazard, but Dallas’s climate loss ratio is 0.1328% of building value per year versus Houston’s 0.1969%. Dallas therefore better fits lower climate-risk tolerance, subject to parcel-level verification. In practical terms, Houston offers stronger headline yield, lower purchase basis and somewhat more supply discipline, while Dallas offers better renter affordability, stronger employment evidence and the lower market-level climate-loss measure. Neither deserves automatic selection: advance Houston for income efficiency and Dallas for demand stability or climate sensitivity.

Evidence matrix

One question, two records

“n/a” means the current source did not publish a comparable value. It is never replaced with an estimate.

Decision evidenceDallas, TXHouston, TX
Composite scoresame published scoring framework44/10036/100
Median home valueZillow ZHVI$366,701$308,933
Median asking rentZillow ZORI$1,673$1,648
Gross rental yieldrent × 12 ÷ price5.5%6.4%
Price to household incomevalue ÷ ACS income4.06x3.76x
Annual job changeCES▲ 0.82%▲ 0.57%
Months of supplylatest Redfin period when publishedn/a4.2 mo.
Net migrationIRS tax-return households+21,070+11,570
Expected annual building lossFEMA NRI market aggregate0.133%0.197%
Latest market momentum

Price and rent are not moving in lockstep

A shared zero-centred scale makes direction and magnitude comparable. This is a current annual change, not a forecast.

Latest annual home-value and asking-rent momentumDallas, TXLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-3.0%ASKING RENT-0.1%-3.0%+3.0%Houston, TXLATEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE0%HOME VALUE-2.1%ASKING RENT+0.0%-3.0%+3.0%
Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Score fingerprint

The same total can hide a different market

Direct labels replace hover tooltips, so the full comparison remains visible in static HTML and print.

Component score differencesDallasCOMPOSITE SCORE44/100same national frameworkHoustonCOMPOSITE SCORE36/100same national frameworkCOMPONENT PROFILE0255075100Employment7869gap 9Rent trend77gap 0Affordability6853gap 15Supply discipline213gap 11Climate safety5624gap 32DallasHouston
Component percentiles use the same national scoring population and published weights on both market pages. See the source ledger below for the releases behind each component.
Price and rent history

Two growth paths, rebased to the same start

Each panel starts at 100. End labels expose whether rents or prices moved farther without asking the reader to chase a legend.

Indexed price and rent historyDallas, TXHOME VALUE INDEX141RENT INDEX12810012515020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared yearHouston, TXHOME VALUE INDEX137RENT INDEX12310012515020192026rebased to 100 at the first shared year
Dallas: price 141 · rent 128Houston: price 137 · rent 123Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26; Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26
Fit by objective

There is no universal winner

Five underwriting questions are kept in one decision ledger instead of five disconnected cards.

01
Cash flowHouston

Houston is the better cash-flow candidate because its published gross yield is 6.4%, versus 5.48% in Dallas. Median asking rents are close—$1,648 in Houston and $1,673 in Dallas—so Houston’s advantage reflects its lower market entry price rather than a stronger rent level. For a buyer, that supports screening Houston first when gross income efficiency is the priority. The measure is before property-specific vacancy, concessions, taxes, insurance, maintenance and financing, so it cannot establish net cash flow.

02
AffordabilityDepends on the deal

Houston offers the lower acquisition basis at $308,933, while Dallas is $57,768 more expensive. That favors Houston for buyers constrained by purchase price or capital allocation. Renter affordability points the other way: rent equals 22.24% of median household income in Dallas and 24.07% in Houston. Dallas may therefore provide more room in the representative household budget, which matters when testing rent resilience. The fit depends on whether “affordability” means investor entry cost or renter payment burden; the records favor different markets on those objectives.

03
EmploymentDallas

Dallas has the stronger published employment signal. CES employment grew 0.82% year over year there, compared with 0.57% in Houston. Dallas also recorded net migration of 21,070 tax-return households, versus 11,570 in Houston. For a buyer, these figures support prioritizing Dallas when broad demand stability is more important than Houston’s yield advantage. They do not identify which industries produced the jobs, whether growth is concentrated near a candidate property, or whether incoming households match the target rent band, so submarket validation remains necessary.

04
Supply disciplineHouston

Houston better fits supply discipline on the directly comparable permitting measure. It recorded 7.88 permits per 1,000 residents, below Dallas at 8.52, and Houston’s permit total was 58,624 versus 68,016 in Dallas. For a buyer, the lower visible development pipeline reduces one market-level warning about future leasing competition, though it does not reveal tenure, unit type, delivery timing or submarket concentration. Houston also reports 4.2 months of supply; Dallas’s corresponding figure is not published, so that measure cannot support a cross-market conclusion.

05
Climate riskDallas

Dallas better fits a buyer with lower climate-risk tolerance. Both records identify inland flood as the dominant hazard, but Dallas’s annual climate loss ratio is 0.1328% of building value, compared with 0.1969% for Houston; the published Dallas-minus-Houston difference is -0.0641 percentage points. This changes underwriting priority rather than determining insurability: Houston candidates warrant a tighter initial climate screen, while Dallas carries the lower market-level modeled loss measure. Neither figure replaces parcel elevation, flood-zone, drainage, claims-history, resilience or insurance-quote review.

Your priorities, verified evidence

Which market fits your plan?

Answer five questions to reweight the published fit calls above. Your answers change the emphasis—not the evidence, figures or market scores.

Question 1 of 5Cash flow
How important is current income in your market decision?

Choose how much the published cash-flow fit should influence your result.

Income and pressure

Where the trade-off becomes visible

Yield and jobs answer a different question than supply and migration. The page keeps both views separate instead of blending them into one score.

Income × employment

Gross yield against job growth

Gross yield and job growth positionDallasGROSS YIELD5.5%JOB CHANGE0.8%HoustonGROSS YIELD6.4%JOB CHANGE0.6%MORE JOB MOMENTUMHIGHER YIELD + JOBSLOWER ON BOTH AXESMORE CURRENT YIELDDallasHouston4.9%7.0%GROSS YIELD - HIGHER TO THE RIGHT1.4%0.0%
A position chart, not a forecast.Zillow ZHVI — metro home values · Metro_zhvi_uc_sfrcondo_tier_0.33_0.67_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26Zillow ZORI — metro market rents · Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv · pulled 2026-07-26BLS CES — payroll employment · CES SM current · pulled 2026-07-26
Supply × demand

Capacity and household flow

Supply and migration balanceSUPPLY DISCIPLINEcomponent score and current listing supply0100Dallaslisting supply n/a2/100Houston4.2 months listed13/100NET HOUSEHOLD MIGRATIONIRS tax-return householdsOUTFLOW0INFLOWDallasnet tax-return households+21,070Houstonnet tax-return households+11,570
Supply and IRS migration remain separate measures.Census Building Permits Survey — permitted units · BPS through 2026 · pulled 2026-07-26Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts · metro tracker through 2026-05-01 · pulled 2026-07-26IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26
Migration quality, not just volume

Adjust the flow for market size and mover income

Raw migration rewards a larger metro by construction. The rate below divides net mover tax returns by ACS population; the income bars then compare the adjusted gross income reported by arrivals and departures.

Migration volume adjusted for population and mover income qualityDallas, TXNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+2.6PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+21,070 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$86,488LEAVING$83,365ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI+$3,123Houston, TXNET TAX-RETURN HOUSEHOLDS+1.6PER 1,000 RESIDENTS+11,570 raw netMOVER INCOME PER RETURNARRIVING$78,893LEAVING$86,392ARRIVING MINUS LEAVING AGI-$7,499
IRS SOI — county migration and mover income · SOI migration 2022-2023 · pulled 2026-07-26Census ACS 5-year — population · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-26“Per 1,000 residents” is a transparent normalization, not a published IRS rate.
Underwriting boundary

What this comparison cannot decide

Market evidence narrows the search. It does not price a roof, an insurance policy, a loan or a specific lease.

  1. Gross yield is a market-level, pre-expense measure based on median price and asking rent. It does not show achievable rent, vacancy, concessions, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, management, financing or rehabilitation needs. Houston’s headline advantage may narrow or widen at the property level, so request trailing operations, current leases, tax records and insurance quotes before ranking individual assets.
  2. Supply comparability is incomplete. Houston publishes 4.2 months of supply, 49 median days on market and a 36.88% price-drop measure, while corresponding Dallas fields are not published. Those figures can inform Houston negotiations but cannot establish that Houston has more resale slack than Dallas. Permit counts also omit delivery dates, cancellations, tenure and neighborhood concentration.
  3. Employment and migration measures are broad market indicators, not rent-roll evidence. CES growth does not disclose sector mix or proximity to a property, and tax-return migration does not establish renter household formation. Dallas’s incoming adjusted gross income is $86,488 with a $3,123 gap, while Houston’s gap is -$7,499; verify local employers, commute patterns and target-tenant incomes.