When county housing measures and local jobs move apart
Which counties have Zillow rent and FHFA house-price measures moving in one direction while covered employment moves in the other?
This county screen keeps three different measures separate: Zillow asking-rent change, FHFA repeat-transaction appreciation and BLS QCEW covered-employment change. It isolates places where both housing signs agree with each other but oppose the local workplace signal.
- Starting universe
- 1,011 counties with all three direct changes
- Strict disagreements
- 325 both housing signs oppose covered jobs
- Housing up / jobs down
- 308 rent and HPI positive, jobs negative
- Jobs up / housing down
- 17 jobs positive, both housing signs negative
Housing pressure can persist while the workplace base contracts
The complete intersection contains 1,011 counties with direct Zillow rent change, FHFA appreciation and QCEW covered-employment change. Requiring both housing measures to share a sign while employment has the opposite sign leaves 325 counties. Of those, 308 have rising rent and HPI alongside falling covered employment; 17 show the reverse pattern.
Crawford County, AR has the largest employment decline in the first group at -7.4%, while Zillow rent changes 2.3% and FHFA HPI changes 4.6%. The opposite group is led by Caldwell County, TX, where covered employment changes 7.5% while rent and HPI change -2.3% and -2.4%, respectively.
Opposite signs do not identify the cause. They identify counties where a one-signal growth story deserves more scrutiny before a property reaches underwriting.
The releases are deliberately not synchronized or averaged. QCEW counts jobs at covered workplaces; it does not measure employed residents. FHFA is a repeat-transaction index rather than a dollar price, while Zillow rent is a broad asking-rent measure rather than a unit comp. The useful next step is to open the county page, inspect its wage, industry, supply and migration context, then verify property-level rent and costs.
Housing measures agree; local jobs point the other way
Dots retain three separate annual changes. Nothing is averaged into a score.
The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market
| Rank | County | Rent YoY | FHFA HPI | Jobs YoY | Weekly wage | Largest private supersector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caldwell County, TXQCEW 2025 | -2.3% | -2.4% | 7.5% | $1,100 | Trade, transportation, and utilities26.4% of private covered jobs |
| 2 | Crawford County, ARQCEW 2025 | 2.3% | 4.6% | -7.4% | $965 | Manufacturing29.7% of private covered jobs |
| 3 | Rockwall County, TXQCEW 2025 | -0.2% | -0.9% | 5.2% | $1,148 | Trade, transportation, and utilities23.6% of private covered jobs |
| 4 | Jackson County, GAQCEW 2025 | 2.8% | 3.9% | -4.8% | $1,033 | Trade, transportation, and utilities49.1% of private covered jobs |
| 5 | Lyon County, KSQCEW 2025 | 7.6% | 0.7% | -4.5% | $951 | Manufacturing32.6% of private covered jobs |
| 6 | Georgetown County, SCQCEW 2025 | 6.9% | 3.1% | -4.4% | $1,017 | Leisure and hospitality27.3% of private covered jobs |
| 7 | Rockingham County, NCQCEW 2025 | 7.3% | 6.5% | -3.9% | $927 | Trade, transportation, and utilities26.6% of private covered jobs |
| 8 | Jasper County, MOQCEW 2025 | 4.8% | 3.7% | -3.8% | $1,003 | Trade, transportation, and utilities30.8% of private covered jobs |
| 9 | Pasco County, FLQCEW 2025 | -0.2% | -2.6% | 3.5% | $1,120 | Trade, transportation, and utilities25.2% of private covered jobs |
| 10 | Polk County, ORQCEW 2025 | 0.6% | 2.8% | -3.5% | $1,044 | Education and health services26.6% of private covered jobs |
| 11 | Whitfield County, GAQCEW 2025 | 3.4% | 2.7% | -3.3% | $1,089 | Manufacturing35.5% of private covered jobs |
| 12 | Travis County, TXQCEW 2025 | -2.0% | -1.7% | 3.3% | $1,942 | Professional and business services26.5% of private covered jobs |
| 13 | Hanover County, VAQCEW 2025 | 5.2% | 3.6% | -3.2% | $1,157 | Trade, transportation, and utilities32.2% of private covered jobs |
| 14 | Warren County, VAQCEW 2025 | 1.8% | 4.6% | -3.1% | $1,059 | Trade, transportation, and utilities26.0% of private covered jobs |
| 15 | Coffee County, TNQCEW 2025 | 1.8% | 3.5% | -3.1% | $1,149 | Manufacturing20.4% of private covered jobs |
| 16 | Shenandoah County, VAQCEW 2025 | 1.2% | 2.8% | -3.1% | $984 | Trade, transportation, and utilities25.1% of private covered jobs |
| 17 | Collin County, TXQCEW 2025 | -1.7% | -0.8% | 3.0% | $1,769 | Professional and business services22.2% of private covered jobs |
| 18 | Hays County, TXQCEW 2025 | -2.5% | -0.1% | 3.0% | $1,091 | Trade, transportation, and utilities30.6% of private covered jobs |
| 19 | Clark County, OHQCEW 2025 | 3.2% | 4.7% | -2.9% | $1,024 | Trade, transportation, and utilities23.5% of private covered jobs |
| 20 | Frederick County, VAQCEW 2025 | 5.0% | 4.5% | -2.8% | $1,206 | Trade, transportation, and utilities32.5% of private covered jobs |
| 21 | Howard County, INQCEW 2025 | 3.3% | 5.5% | -2.7% | $1,222 | Manufacturing28.1% of private covered jobs |
| 22 | Navajo County, AZQCEW 2025 | 2.7% | 3.2% | -2.6% | $1,002 | Trade, transportation, and utilities25.6% of private covered jobs |
| 23 | Walla Walla County, WAQCEW 2025 | 3.4% | 5.0% | -2.6% | $1,137 | Education and health services24.7% of private covered jobs |
| 24 | Kanawha County, WVQCEW 2025 | 4.6% | 1.8% | -2.6% | $1,240 | Education and health services29.7% of private covered jobs |
The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.
Inclusion first, interpretation second.
Start with current Census counties that have direct Zillow county rent change, FHFA annual HPI change and BLS QCEW annual employment change. Publish only strict opposite-sign cases: rent and HPI both above zero with employment below zero, or rent and HPI both below zero with employment above zero. Rank by absolute employment change.
Methodology version: v2Method
- Zillow county rent change measures the current asking-rent index; FHFA annual HPI change measures repeat mortgage transactions.
- QCEW annual average covered employment is workplace-based and the change recomputes from the prior annual release.
- No average or composite is made from the three rates; signs determine inclusion and absolute job change determines order.
Counter-signals
- Housing and labor releases cover different periods, so disagreement can reflect timing rather than a structural break.
- Covered employment excludes some workers and counts jobs where establishments operate, not where workers live.
- County-wide rent and HPI measures can conceal sharply different cities, property types and price bands.
Limitations
- Only counties with all three direct series enter; absence from the table is not evidence that the signals agree.
- FHFA HPI is an appreciation index rather than a dollar home price, and Zillow rent is not a unit-level comp.
- The screen does not explain causation or forecast which signal will reverse; it identifies a due-diligence queue.
Every input release used by this study
Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.